March 3rd Update — Super Tuesday
I’m trying something new. Each week I’ll share a quick, high level, 3 minute read about the state of our politics. It won’t be eloquent, it might be error free, and it will always, always, be honest. I hope that it serves as a starting point for deeper discussions in your community and further engagement on the issues that are important to you.
Let’s catch up after a long, long weekend. On Saturday Vice President Joe Biden won South Carolina by nearly 30 percentage points, carried mostly by moderate whites and older black voters. On Sunday, South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg suspended his campaign. On Monday morning, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar suspended her campaign. And On Monday evening, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke all endorsed Biden in a show of unity in Dallas, Texas ahead of today’s important Super Tuesday showdown vs. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and closet Republican billionaire Michael Bloomberg.
I’m disappointed by this turn of events. I would have hoped that each of these people would have delayed endorsing a candidate and instead taken the road to endorse and support the eventual nominee. This is selfish, because I support Sanders. But it’s also selfless, because I believe Democratic unity is the most important thing at stake between now and July. Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and O’Rourke’s actions tip the scale to Biden in an effort to head off Sanders bid. Exiting Nevada, Sanders had the highest chance to win the nomination, according to 538. After South Carolina, 538 has “no one” predicted to reach the minimum delegate threshold. After the moderate endorsements that’s still the case, but Biden’s odds (1 in 5) are now higher than Bernie’s (1 in 7) for the first time. That’s really a shame. I believe that country needs radical and fundamental change and I believe our moment demands a candidate who can bring new voters into the process. Bernie is that candidate.
Today, the race enters a new dynamic. Regardless of how long Warren and Bloomberg choose to stay in the race, it appears that it will come down to Sanders and Biden. If this is the case, they will duke it out and trade blows state by state. My greatest fear is that we enter the Democratic convention in a deadlock between two polar opposite candidates. I fear the convention will bludgeon our party and Biden will emerge as the nominee with the aide of weaker moderates and even superdelegates.
In many ways the last 24 hours have confirmed what we’ve known is true for a while. Biden, although I’ve liked him for a long time, is not a strong candidate on his own and is not the leader that the Democratic party needs in the 21st century. As a figurehead for moderates, Joe can succeed and earn the nomination, but I’m hard pressed to find an argument for how he can separate himself as a singular figure worthy of a nomination.
With that being said, there is only one thing you should take away from this week. Moderates need to come to terms with the fact that Bernie Sanders is a transcendent figure in modern politics who can change the nature of the party. Bernie bros need to come to terms with the fact that Joe Biden is a storied public servant with the structure to go the distance. But no matter who you believe the country needs, there’s only ONE person who we cannot accept. That is Donald Trump.
So for everyone sharing memes that Biden’s impending nomination means suppressed turnout and a Trump victory, cut it out. For those who shutter at the word socialism and think Bernie’s out of touch with regular people, get over yourself.
I cannot make this clear enough. It. Does. Not. Matter. Who. The. Nominee. Is. They can and will win if we work hard enough. I need you to care more about this election than you ever have about anything in your entire life. We will win with whoever it is if we believe that we can. And that starts RIGHT NOW, as the race has become tighter and our situation appears more urgent. We need to make the case for anyone.
So support who you want and say what you must as voting continues. But remember your words, your shares, and your likes all matter and we’ll need them to be positive when July rolls around. There’s too much at stake for us to destroy ourselves over two 78 year old white men.
